The policy paper examines how Russia’s war against Ukraine has affected the country’s internal cohesion, its role in Europe, and its position on the global stage. At home, the conflict has strained the unity and stability of Russia’s ruling elite, as the Kremlin has prioritized sustaining the war over safeguarding long-term economic growth and prosperity. Although Russia retains some hidden channels of influence in Europe, it has seen a substantial erosion of its trade and energy relationships, weakening its ability to exert pressure on European countries.
Internationally, Moscow advocates for a post-Western, multipolar world order. Yet in pursuing this vision, it has developed new dependencies on major powers it cannot fully control, particularly China and India. The authors argue that Europe should pursue policies that contribute to a broader “polycrisis,” encouraging Russia to focus inward and reducing its capacity to conduct assertive and aggressive foreign policy.
Among the central recommendations are also measures aimed at intensifying fractures within the Russian elite.
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